国际：中国养猪业继续减栏（中国养猪趋势）

　　The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture’s Swine March Inventory Report indicates a decline of 700,000 sows in the last month. In the first three months of 2015, Chinese Government data indicates 2.5 million sows have been eliminated. In the last 12 months, 7.5 million sows have been liquidated, bringing the Chinese Sow Inventory to 40.425 million sows. It’s a continuing unprecedented decline in China’s production capacity, and with 700,000 more gone last month a scenario that is far from over.

　　中国农业部三月份的生猪存栏报告表明，上个月份母猪减少700,000头。2015年前三个月，中国政府数据表明，已经淘汰250万母猪。在过去12个月中，中国母猪已经淘汰了750万头母猪，存栏下降为4042.5万头。中国的产能出现了空前的持续衰退，从上个月减少的70万头可以看到这一过程还未结束。

　　The Hog Market Inventory on March 01, 2015 was 389.93 million, down 40 million from the same time a year ago. If it takes 25 weeks for a hog to go from birth to market that is an average of 1.6 million fewer hogs per week coming to slaughter over the next 6 months. That’s a heck of a lot less pork available and with the sow herd liquidation ongoing there will be even fewer hogs to go to market in 2016.

　　2015年3月1日商品猪存栏是38,993万头，比去年同期减少了4000万头。猪从出生到出栏需要25周时间，在接下来6个月时间内，每周出栏头数将减少160万头左右。猪肉数量大量减少。随着母猪群的持续淘汰，2016年的出栏数甚至可能更低。

　　China’s hog prices are about 95? USD a pound liveweight that is currently up about 5? a pound this past month. The challenge for Chinese producers is Corn at $10 USD a bushel, Soybean meal $550 USD a ton, lots of diseases, and low productivity. Truth is 95? US liveweight a pound or over $200 per market hog is near breakeven or for many, losses.

　　中国的生猪价格约为95美分/磅活重，上个月上涨了约5美分/磅。中国生产者面临的挑战是玉米价格达10美元/蒲式耳，豆粕价格为550美元/吨以及大量的疾病和低下的生产效率。事实是95美分/磅活重的价格，即每头生猪200美元，这差不多是很多人的盈亏平衡点，仍然亏损。

　　We have been writing for several months that China will at some point be down 2 million hogs per week (give or take total US slaughter per week). We are getting closer. We believe that the equivalent of 100,000 hogs a week exported from the US to China is a market mover. Same scenario for EU countries. It will happen, capitalism is alive and well; pork will move at unprecedented levels to China. It’s already started and like a snowball going down a hill will just have to continue to get bigger.

　　我们这几个月一直在说，中国将在某一时刻每周减少200万头生猪(美国每周的总屠宰量)。我们越来越接近了。我们相信，从美国到中国每周相当于100,000头猪的出口量是市场推手。欧盟国家是相同的情况。这很正常，资本主义会很好地起作用。运往中国的猪肉将会达到前所未有的水平。这已经开始，像雪球下坡一样将只会不断增大。

　　Cash Market

　　现货市场

　　The US hog price continues its relentless increase. On Friday, Iowa – Minnesota averaged 74.94? lean a pound up 6? on the week. Since the release of the March 1 Hogs and Pigs Report on March 27 lean hog months have gained 6 cents a pound.

　　美国生猪价格继续不断上涨。周五，艾奥瓦州-明尼苏达州的平均价格为74.94美元/瘦肉猪，本周上涨6美分。美国农业部3月27日发布了3月1日生猪报告以来，瘦肉猪每磅上涨了6美分。

　　Observations

　　观察

　　·US National Daily Base Lean Hog weights a year ago were 219.84 pounds. This past week lean hog weights were 6 pounds lighter at 213.9. 6 pounds is about 8 pounds liveweight. If we use 2 pounds gain per day, that’s 4 days production, or about 1 million hogs pulled ahead this year compared to last year. The US has marketed about 2 million more hogs this year compared to last or a 5.6% increase. Take one million out due to pull ahead, it moves year over year marketings to 2.8%. The USDA December 1 Hog Inventory Report indicated a 2% increase year over year in market inventory. They are the Pigs we marketed year to date.

　　·去年，美国全国每日瘦肉猪基准体重是219.84磅。上周，瘦肉猪重量减少至213.9磅，减少6磅。这6磅相当于8磅的活重。如果我们假设每天增重2磅，这相当于4天的产量。这意味着今年与去年同期相比，减少了约100万头猪。美国今年比去年多出栏约200万头生猪，增长了5.6%。由于重量下降减去100万头，同比出栏量增加了2.8%。美国农业部12月1日生猪存栏报告表明，生猪存栏同比增长2%。这些猪就是我们今年迄今所出栏的生猪。

　　·Maybe it is convoluted Farmer Arithmetic but we believe that US Inventory as of December 1 of a 2% increase was correct. The year to date hog marketing difference of over 5% more is due to pulling weights down and pushing marketings ahead.

　　·也许土算法令人费解，但我们相信美国12月1日存栏中2%的增量是正确的。今年迄今超过5%的生猪出栏差异是由于重量下降及出栏推进所致。

　　·The March 1, 2015 Market Inventory is similar to 2013’s. In the summer of 2013 lean hogs were in the mid-90s. We continue to believe that’s where this market is going. Why? More pork to China, high beef prices, stronger US economy, more people, but most importantly we see no overriding conditions that will slow the US pork prices to reach 2013 levels this summer. We know we are way out there with our thoughts. The Ag – economists have predicted 70-74? per pound this summer. We point out we are already at 74? and the seasonal decline in hog marketings just started.

　　·2015年3月1日的商品猪存栏与2013年相似。2013年夏季的生猪价格在95美分左右。我们仍然认为市场将向这个方向发展。为什么呢?越来越多的猪肉运往中国、牛肉价格上涨、美国经济走强、人口增加，但最重要的是我们没有看到任何会减缓美国猪肉价格在今年夏天达到2013年水平的意外条件。我们知道我们有我们的思维方式。农业经济学家预测今年夏天会达到每磅70~74美分。我们指出，我们已经是74美分，生猪出栏数的季节性下降刚刚开始。

　　Hang On – Yippee – Yi – Yo – this is going to be interesting!

　　坚持住，现在越来越有趣了!